Government Land Sales · 2026

When Land Bids Go Higher, The Next Launch Can't Come Cheaper.

Developers paid up to S$1,865 psf ppr for residential land this year. Five years of URA caveats show what a land price does to a launch price about two years later. That is the report I want to put in your hands.

Stella Thio · PropNex Realty Pte Ltd · Project Chief for 14 CCR developments

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13residential sites awarded, January to September 2026
S$1,537psf ppr, the new OCR record, set on 1 September
2.1×what a launch price has typically been to its land rate
+47%new-sale over resale psf outside the central region, 2026

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The record

Thirteen Sites. Every One Of Them Is A Price For 2027 Or 2028.

Every residential and mixed-use Government Land Sales site awarded between January and September 2026. A developer who paid these rates has to sell above them. The developer's land is roughly half of what a unit will sell for, and construction, financing and margin did not get cheaper this year.

SiteTop bid, psf pprClosedBiddersWhat it set
Dairy Farm WalkS$96222 Jan5Low-density OCR site; winner ahead by 0.4%
Hougang Central (mixed-use)S$1,17914 Jan, award3S$1.5b site, about 830 homes, CRL link by 2030
Tanjong Rhu RoadS$1,4555 Feb5Record RCR GLS rate at the time; 525 homes
Lentor CentralS$1,2783 Mar5Record for a Lentor residential site; about 500–560 homes
Dover Drive (mixed-use)S$1,55626 Mar6Nearest parcel to one-north MRT; S$951m
Kallang CloseS$1,4157 Apr4First Kallang GLS in over ten years
Dunearn Road (second site)S$1,62527 Apr615% above the first Dunearn site (S$1,410, Jul 2025)
Holland PlainS$1,4917 May1Sole bid, awarded
Peck Hay RoadS$1,86511 Jun4Highest of 2026; above Bukit Timah Road's S$1,820 (Nov 2025)
River Valley Green (Parcel C)S$1,73018 Jun421.8% above Parcel B (S$1,420, Feb 2025)
Bayshore Drive (mixed-use)S$1,32415 Jul3S$2.13b; about 1,280 homes plus a retail mall
Berlayar DriveS$1,5154 Aug1Sole bid; record for a purely residential RCR site
New Upper Changi RoadS$1,5371 Sep4OCR record; 15.6% above Bedok Rise (S$1,330, Nov 2025); about 1,010 homes

Sources: URA tender results as reported in ERA Research and press commentaries (Jan–Sep 2026), CapitaLand news release 14 Jan 2026 (Hougang Central), TRIBE Insights (bid counts, Berlayar Drive), 99.co and EdgeProp tender reports. Bayshore Drive rate reported as S$1,323–1,324 depending on rounding. Retrieved 14 Sep 2026.

Land → launch

What A Land Price Became, Sixteen Times In A Row.

Sixteen projects launched since 2022 on Government Land Sales sites, with the land rate next to the median price of their first three months of developer sales in the URA record. The launch price landed between 1.75 and 2.56 times the land rate; the middle of the pack is about 2.1 times.

ProjectLandLaunchMultipleLaunchedCaveats
Lentor ModernS$1,204S$2,1071.75×Sep 2022518
LentoriaS$1,130S$2,1301.88×Mar 202476
AMO ResidenceS$1,118S$2,1101.89×Jul 2022361
Tembusu GrandS$1,302S$2,4621.89×Apr 2023362
Hillock GreenS$1,108S$2,1161.91×Nov 2023159
Lentor Hills ResidencesS$1,060S$2,1071.99×Jul 2023392
The OrieS$1,360S$2,7292.01×Jan 2025689
Vela BayS$1,388S$2,8662.06×Apr 2026373
One Marina GardensS$1,402S$2,9502.10×Apr 2025478
Sceneca ResidenceS$930S$2,0842.24×Jan 2023159
Lentor Central ResidencesS$982S$2,2142.25×Mar 2025469
River ModernS$1,420S$3,2292.27×Mar 2026431
Lentor MansionS$985S$2,2682.30×Mar 2024429
River GreenS$1,325S$3,1182.35×Aug 2025474
Emerald of KatongS$1,069S$2,6272.46×Nov 2024840
Lentor Gardens ResidencesS$920S$2,3572.56×Jul 2026282

Launch medians: URA caveat data (URA Data Service, New Sale, single strata units), first three months from the first developer caveat, retrieved 14 Sep 2026. Land rates: URA tender results as reported by EdgeProp, ERA Research, 99.co and JetSet Homes (Lentor sites). Multiples are arithmetic on these two figures, not a forecast. At 1.9× to 2.3×, Lentor Central's S$1,278 implies roughly S$2,430–2,940 psf (Knight Frank expects "from S$2,700"); New Upper Changi Road's S$1,537 roughly S$2,920–3,540. Past transactions do not predict future returns.

The gap

Where The Land Says One Price And The Resale Market Says Another.

New launches carry the new land cost. Completed condos next to them do not. In 2026 the median new-sale unit outside the central region sells for 47% more per square foot than the median resale unit. That gap is where an HDB upgrader's budget still works, and it is closing: resale has risen faster than new sale in every region since 2022.

RegionNew saleResaleGapResale since 2022
OCRS$2,317S$1,574+47%+24.9%
RCRS$2,653S$1,963+35%+23.7%
CCRS$3,153S$2,190+44%+8.8%

URA caveat data, condominiums and apartments, single strata units, median psf Jan–Sep 2026 versus calendar 2022. Caveat counts 2026: OCR 2,767 new / 3,960 resale; RCR 1,198 / 2,481; CCR 1,014 / 1,490. Retrieved 14 Sep 2026.

Method

How I Read A Tender. The Land Bid Ladder.

I spent years reading company earnings before I read land bids. The habit is the same: start from the number nobody can argue with, and work forward to the decision.

01

Read the floor

Take the land rate and the record multiple. S$1,537 psf ppr in Bedok is a launch somewhere around S$2,900–3,500 in 2028.

02

Find the gap

Price what is already standing within a kilometre against that floor. The gap is the opportunity, or the warning.

03

Work back from the exit buyer

Ask who buys it from you in five to eight years. Usually someone priced out of the launch next door.

04

Filter with the record

Unsold stock nearby, units on the 2H2026 confirmed list, and how the last three launches resold at completion. If the numbers hold, proceed.

What's inside · free PDF

The Land Bid Report, September 2026.

  1. 01
    The 2026 tender sheetAll thirteen awards with the implied launch range for each.
  2. 02
    The land → launch recordEvery GLS project launched since 2022, with caveat counts.
  3. 03
    Launch → completionHow each GLS project resold once keys were collected.
  4. 04
    The gap table, all 28 districtsNew-sale versus resale medians, ranked, with the 2026 land bids overlaid.
  5. 05
    The exit-buyer checklistEight questions before any unit is signed.
  6. 06
    Three worked situationsHDB upgrader, condo owner near a 2026 site, first-timer.
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Who is writing this

Stella Thio, PropNex Realty Pte Ltd

I have sat on the developer's side of the table as Project Chief for fourteen Core Central Region developments, which is where I learned how a land bid turns into a price list. I now use that on the buyer's side.

  • Project Chief for 14 CCR developments
  • PropNex Millionaire, 2020–2024, six-time Champion Luxury Tagger
  • Former Senior Dealing Director, NUS Economics and Statistics
  • Every figure carries its source and its caveat count, so you can check me
"A land bid is the only honest number in a launch. The developer cannot market it away, and the government publishes it two years before the showflat."— Stella Thio

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Free · 6 chapters · updated September 2026

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